Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 15m?

Analysis

The Thursday preview figure of $1.03M is doing more work than it looks. Family films don't front-load into Thursday nights — that's a fanboy move. The real money comes on Saturday matinees and Mother's Day Sunday walk-ups, which means that preview number scales into something considerably bigger than the $12-15M bracket can hold. The near-perfect Rotten Tomatoes score is the clincher. A Hugh Jackman-led 'Babe meets Knives Out' with that kind of critical glow doesn't stay modest on a holiday weekend. Word of mouth spreads fast once parents hear a film is smart, funny and genuinely worth leaving the house for. GoldDerby is penciling in $18M and Box Office Theory's range runs up to $21M for a reason. Yes, Mortal Kombat II and the Michael biopic are grabbing screens and attention — but they're fishing in entirely different ponds. The family mystery audience isn't cross-shopping with superhero beatdowns. Don't back the middle bracket. This film has too much critical wind and too perfect a holiday slot to stay pinned below $15M — fade the $12-15M band and look higher.