Spread: Spurs (-4.5)

Analysis

The injury report has turned this into a mismatch in Minnesota's own building. Anthony Edwards is hobbled with a bone bruise, Donte DiVincenzo is gone for the season, and Ayo Dosunmu is limping through a heel issue — that is a lot of shot creation missing against a Spurs defense that has been suffocating all year. San Antonio does not just have better health — they have elite road credentials. A 31-12 away record does not happen by accident, and Wembanyama has been an absolute menace at both ends. Rudy Gobert barely got comfortable in Game 2, and that problem does not fix itself in 48 hours. The fair counter — and our lone dissenting model flagged this — is that home crowds get loud after blowout losses, and Edwards, even at reduced capacity, changes games. That is real, and the number at four-and-a-half deserves some respect rather than blind faith in Game 2 repeating. But the Wolves simply do not have enough healthy bodies to punish San Antonio's depth. De'Aaron Fox alongside Wembanyama is too much firepower for a shorthanded roster to contain across four quarters. Back the Spurs to cover — the injury gap is too wide and their road pedigree too strong to fade here.