Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds

Analysis

The Astros are rolling into Great American Ball Park looking like a MASH unit on wheels. Carlos Correa is done for the year after ankle surgery, Lance McCullers can't grip a baseball because of a finger blister, and Houston is sending Kai-Wei Tang out as an opener just to survive nine innings. This is a team playing rope-a-dope with their own roster. Meanwhile, the Reds just snapped an ugly eight-game skid with a crisp 3-1 win and now get to host a beaten-up visitor in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball. Cincinnati's bullpen depth is a real weapon when Houston will burn through relievers by the fifth inning. The Astros still have recognizable names and can always steal one — that's baseball. But Correa's absence, a makeshift infield with Paredes shuffled to third, and a starter who isn't really a starter? That's not a recipe for winning on the road. Houston's 16-24 record isn't an accident. They're last in the AL West for real reasons, and Cincinnati has the home comfort, the momentum, and the bullpen to close this out. Back the Reds — the Astros are overmatched and running out of answers.