Spread: Thunder (-10.5)

Analysis

The Thunder have dismantled the Lakers in every dimension this series, and that 23-point road blowout in Game 3 was no fluke. Ajay Mitchell dropped 24 and 10, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was in complete control, and OKC's wave of contributors kept piling on. The Lakers are down Luka Doncic, leaving LeBron James and Anthony Davis as the entire offense. Without real creation around them, Los Angeles has been sloppy on both ends — and the Thunder punish every defensive breakdown with pace and ball movement. Yes, elimination games at home bring desperation, and road double-digit spreads are never automatic. That counterpoint has real merit — even dominant teams can win without quite covering when garbage time gets sloppy. But OKC already torched this building by 23 with Jalen Williams on the bench; the structural mismatch hasn't changed. The Thunder's second-half execution has been lethal all series. Back them to finish the sweep and cover on the road.