Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026?

Analysis

April landed at 1.43°C above pre-industrial — joint third-warmest on record. That's not a number that quietly retreats in 30 days. Ocean heat doesn't just disappear because the calendar flips. The bigger story is what's happening in the Pacific. La Niña is on its way out, and El Niño conditions are emerging — that's a warming engine, not a brake. The Atlantic and Indian Oceans are still running hot, which means the global average has nowhere obvious to fall. Every credible forecast has May landing somewhere in the 1.15 to 1.24°C range. Traders have piled into those middle brackets for exactly this reason. For sub-1.10°C to hit, you'd need a dramatic, simultaneous cooldown across multiple ocean basins in a single month — something that simply doesn't happen without a major atmospheric shock, and there's none visible. Yes, data sources can sometimes tell different stories — but the 'Yes' case basically requires a lucky weather event and wishful thinking. I'd back 'No' comfortably here, because the warming momentum is too strong and the Pacific is actively trending in the wrong direction.