Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23?

Analysis

Alavés are safe, settled, and playing the final day with absolutely nothing at stake. That sounds comfortable, but in football it translates to half-switched-off legs and a dressing room that's already thinking about the summer. This is the worst possible match to need them fully fired up. Rayo arrive unbeaten in seven straight league games and still fighting for a Conference League spot. That's a completely different mentality — every tackle, every header, every moment counts. Their defensive shape has been the backbone of this run, and it will be again here. Yes, Rayo are missing a few attacking players, but that makes the draw more likely, not the home win. A compact, motivated away side grinding out a point is exactly what should worry anyone backing Alavés. The head-to-head history at Mendizorrotza backs this up too — these games have been tight and low-scoring, which suits Rayo's current style perfectly. Back Rayo or the draw — Alavés have nothing to fight for and their opponents have everything, and that gap in hunger is too big to ignore on a final day.