US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Analysis

Here's the tell: when negotiators are pitching a "one-page framework" that kicks off a 30-to-60-day process, that's not a deal. That's a deal about maybe having a deal. And even that thin document isn't signed. The real issues — uranium stockpiles, enrichment caps, verification — are the same ones that have wrecked every Iran nuclear negotiation for two decades. Tehran is publicly resisting handing over enriched material or accepting any long-term freeze. You don't close those gaps in days when you haven't closed them in months. The market mood tells you everything too. Headlines screaming about "Iran war worries" don't come from a room where a signing ceremony is being staged. That's the sound of a process grinding on, not a breakthrough landing. Trump loves a headline, and both sides want the Strait of Hormuz pressure gone — so a vague announcement can't be ruled out entirely. But a vague announcement isn't what this market is asking about. It's asking about a real nuclear accord, and that remains miles away. The clock is now the main actor here, and the clock almost always beats the diplomats — bet No and don't overthink it.