Spread: Knicks (-3.5)

Analysis

The Knicks are the better team in this series — no doubt about it. They've won three straight, took Game 3 in Cleveland by 13 with Brunson dropping 30 and Bridges adding 22, and Cleveland has no answer for their perimeter attack. A Finals berth for the first time since 1999 is sitting right there. But covering -3.5 in a closeout Game 4 on the road is a different beast than winning outright. Cleveland is at home, facing elimination, with their season on the line and a crowd that will be desperate to extend the series. Mobley showed he can still produce (24 in Game 3). Even teams getting swept tend to make Game 4 a fight — especially at home. The line being -3.5 (with other markets offering -1.5, -2.5, and -6.5) tells you the books see this as a genuine coinflip on the cover. Knicks win this game more often than not, but by 4+ specifically? That's where I get hesitant. Desperation and home court usually keep these closeout games closer than the series margin suggests. I'd lean Cavaliers to keep this within the number — even in a loss, Cleveland covers more often than not in this spot. Pass or slight lean NO.