Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5

Analysis

Champions League finals have a habit of killing attacking football stone dead, and this one in Budapest has all the ingredients for exactly that. The occasion itself does half the work — neither manager will want to be the one who lost the biggest game of their careers by leaving gaps at the back. Arsenal earned their place here by beating Atletico Madrid, which tells you everything you need to know. They can live in a suffocating, low-margin knockout game for 90 minutes without blinking. Their clean-sheet record in the knockouts isn't an accident — it's a game plan Arteta has drilled into them, and it works against elite opposition. PSG's wide threats are real, and yes, they dismantled Bayern. But Bayern is not Arsenal defensively. Luis Enrique's side will face an organised block that refuses to give them cheap transitions or set-piece errors to exploit. When PSG can't break through quickly, they slow down too. Both teams will be wary of the first mistake deciding everything. That caution compounds. A tense 1-0 or 1-1 is the most likely story here, not a five-goal thriller. Back the under — Arsenal's defensive structure is the strongest concrete factor in this game, and finals history backs it up hard.