Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 4% and 6% in May?

Analysis

A monthly durable goods print of 4-6% is not just a strong number — it's a big, lumpy, specific number that only materializes when aircraft orders flood in, defense contracts cluster, or a snap-back from a brutally weak prior month is in play. None of those conditions are visible right now. Borrowing costs are still elevated after years of Fed tightening, and businesses are not rushing to greenlight major capital spending. That backdrop doesn't produce blowout factory orders; it produces cautious, grinding activity that tends to land in the lower-positive or flat zone. The natural center of gravity for monthly durable goods readings is well below this bracket. Getting all the way to four-to-six in a single month requires a very specific set of transport and defense orders landing simultaneously — a narrow corridor that only gets traffic a handful of times a year. There's no fresh order data, no supply-chain signal, and no consensus forecast pointing anywhere near this band. This is a tail outcome being asked to perform like a base case. Skip the 4-6% bracket entirely — the evidence points squarely at a more modest print, and backing 'No' here is the only trade worth making.