Spread: Spurs (-6.5)

Analysis

The Knicks just closed Game 1 with a 51-28 run in the NBA Finals — on the road. That's not a fluke. That's a team with the mental edge and the playmaker, Brunson, to match any moment. Yes, the Spurs are at home and desperate. Wembanyama's 6-of-21 shooting was a rough night, not a ceiling, and San Antonio will sharpen its isolation-heavy offense for Game 2. Two of five models here actually leaned Spurs, and the bounce-back logic is legitimate. But covering 6.5 in a Finals game is a steep ask. These games grind late, and the Knicks have spent this entire postseason proving they don't crack under pressure — they've come from behind multiple times on hostile floors. Mitchell Robinson's hand is a real concern, but Towns and New York's frontcourt depth can absorb the load. The bigger edge is psychological: the Knicks hold the series lead, the winning streak, and the swagger of a team that already knows it can beat San Antonio in San Antonio. The Spurs might win this game — but seven-plus points against a team this composed? Fade the spread, back the Knicks to keep it close, and trust the team that's been doing exactly that all month.