Spread: Portugal (-1.5)

Analysis

Portugal carry far more firepower into this World Cup opener than DR Congo can realistically hold off for ninety minutes. The squad depth, Nations League form, and an attack built to punish teams that sit deep all point one way. Two of the models flagged genuine reasons for caution — group stage openers are cagey affairs, and Portugal's own World Cup history is full of narrow wins rather than blowouts. DR Congo's defensive block and counter-attacking identity is exactly the profile that keeps favourites at one goal deep into the second half. That concern is real and worth acknowledging. But the quality gap here is simply too wide. DR Congo lack the rotation to match Portugal's pressing and movement over ninety minutes in Houston's June heat. Where fatigue tends to help the defensive underdog early, it punishes them badly once the legs go. Portugal score first, DR Congo tighten — and then Portugal find a second from the bench. That's the script. Back Portugal to win comfortably. The talent difference is too large for DR Congo to keep this respectable all the way to the final whistle.