Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?

Analysis

England walk into Dallas as clear favourites, and the case for Croatia winning this outright is paper-thin. Tuchel has Kane and Bellingham leading the attack, a 3-0 friendly win over Costa Rica showing real sharpness, and a bench that can change a game from anywhere. Croatia, meanwhile, have been patchy in the build-up and their legendary core is simply getting old. Yes, Croatia know how to hurt England — they've done it before and they'll sit deep, stay compact, and hunt the counter. Tournament openers can be cagey, and that suits them perfectly. The draw is a very live outcome and deserves respect. But a straight Croatia win? That requires England to misfire, Modric and Gvardiol to be at their absolute best, and the heat in Texas to scramble England's press all at once. Even with Livramento out and Saka managing a knock, England's squad depth means the quality gap barely narrows. Croatia's experience keeps them dangerous, but backing them to win in normal time is asking too much of a side past its peak. I'd take England to win — the draw is the only credible upset here, not a Croatian victory.