Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on June 30, 2026?

Analysis

The H100 rental market has been grinding lower for two years, and yes, some spot providers have been quoting below two bucks in niche corners of the market. But the Ornn index isn't a bargain-bin aggregator — it blends a broader basket, and that number has been sitting firmly in the mid-two-dollar range. Here's the thing about hardware cycles: when Blackwell floods the racks, H100s don't immediately become free. Demand for compute is voracious and pricing is sticky. The previous generation becomes the industry's workhorse, not the clearance rack. A drop to the basement requires either a catastrophic supply glut or AI investment collapsing overnight — neither is on the table. The market is telling the same story. The middle brackets are where the serious weight lives, not the sub-$2 floor. And with resolution just days away, the print is essentially locked — there's no catalyst left to push prices through a floor that isn't already clearly broken. Fade the sub-$2 outcome entirely. The smarter play is the middle of the field, where the genuine consensus and the real price action both point.