Spread: Colombia (-1.5)

Analysis

Colombia topped their group, kept Portugal scoreless, and have looked composed and organized throughout. On paper, this looks like a mismatch. But covering a two-goal spread in a knockout game demands a ruthlessness Colombia simply haven't shown. Ghana's profile is exactly what makes technical favourites sweat. They beat Panama, stayed competitive against Croatia, and their low-block counter-attacking setup is built to frustrate teams that want to control possession and build patiently. Colombia will have the ball — Ghana will wait for their moment. Knockout football rewards discipline over dominance. If Colombia score first, they won't chase a second; they'll lock the door and manage the game. Ghana's pace and set-piece threat mean any lead stays fragile, and one well-worked transition can flip the narrative entirely. James Rodríguez can unlock defences, but Ghana's physicality and organised shape will keep this tight. The most natural finishes here — a one-nil or a two-one — both land on Ghana's side of the ledger. Back Ghana to keep this within one goal. Colombia's modest attacking output, the single-elimination pressure, and the Ghanaians' counter-punching style all point in the same direction.