Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?

Analysis

Norway are rightly favoured here, but I think this is closer than the headlines suggest. Haaland is the best player on the pitch by a distance and Norway's attacking depth gives them multiple ways to break a game open. That matters in a knockout. But here's the catch — this market only pays on the 90-minute result. Knockout football regularly drifts into tight, cagey affairs that finish level, and Côte d'Ivoire are built exactly for that script. Their defensive shape limited opponents in the group stage, and on the counter they've got Pépé's experience and Diomandé's pace to punish Norway's high line. Norway also shipped four to France last time out. Yes, the big names were rested, but it's not a confidence-boosting way to enter a knockout. There's no home advantage at AT&T Stadium either — this is neutral turf. For Norway to land this market, they need to win inside 90. That's a meaningfully tougher ask than "advance to the quarters." I make them a slight favourite but nothing more — the draw is genuinely live, and an Ivorian smash-and-grab isn't far-fetched. I'd lean Norway thinly but wouldn't bet the house. The price needs to offer real value because the 90-minute rule eats into their edge.