Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5

Analysis

Argentina come into this Round of 32 clash as defending champions with a dangerous attack built around Messi and genuine squad depth. The gap in quality between these two sides is enormous — Cabo Verde are a fairytale debutant built on a stubborn defensive block and set-piece hope, not on trading chances with elite opposition. The real question is whether that defensive discipline can hold for 90 minutes against this attack. It almost certainly cannot. Once Argentina find the breakthrough, Cabo Verde's shape has to open up, and that is where Argentina can run away with it. A first goal before the hour mark turns this into a very different game — suddenly the Blue Sharks are chasing, spaces appear, and Argentina's quality takes over. The bear case is a professional 2-0 — Argentina cruise, manage the game in the heat, and never chase a third. That is a real outcome and the only genuine threat to the Over. But Argentina's ceiling here is simply too high. Three goals on their own is well within range, and if Cabo Verde push for something from a set piece late on, the game opens further. Back the Over — when the talent mismatch is this stark in knockout football, goals follow.