Canada vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5

Analysis

Look at the recent evidence and the story writes itself. Morocco needed a penalty shootout to get past the Netherlands after a 1-1 grind. Canada edged South Africa 1-0. That's three goals combined across their last two knockout matches — and neither team is about to change their identity now the stakes are even higher. Morocco are the better side, no question, but they don't win games by running teams over. They suffocate, they control, they pick moments. Against the Netherlands, they were happy sitting in a tight game for 120 minutes. That's their DNA. Canada's entire plan will be to make this ugly. Stay deep, stay compact, frustrate Morocco, and take one chance if it comes. It's exactly what they did against South Africa, and underdogs in knockout football always back their defensive shape over an open game. The Houston heat only slows things further. Legs get heavy, teams get conservative, and clear-cut chances dry up. This is a match that wants to be 1-0 or 1-1, not 3-1. Crucially, this market settles on regular time only — extra time and penalties are off the table, so the chaos of a late equalizer scrambling both sides doesn't inflate the total here. Back the Under. The form, the tactics, and the match situation all point the same direction — a tight, controlled affair where defenses do their jobs.