Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?

Analysis

The Bank of Russia has the data it needs to keep cutting. Inflation has dropped to its lowest level in nearly two years — and that's not a blip, it's a trend the central bank has been deliberately engineering. When a central bank commits to an easing cycle and its own forecast still leaves room to manoeuvre, you don't expect it to call time at the very next meeting. The April cut already showed the CBR is willing to act, not just talk. Their language about gradual, measured moves reads like a central bank that has committed to a direction, not one hunting for excuses to pause. That framing matters. Gemini's dissenting view — that the CBR will sit on its hands while it digests the April move — deserves honest acknowledgement. Fiscal spending is running hot, external pressures are real, and Russian policymakers can be stubbornly cautious. A hold is not a crazy call, and this is a genuinely contested picture. But central banks in cut mode don't slam the brakes unless the data forces them — and nothing in the current inflation trajectory is screaming stop. The momentum is pointing one way. Back the cut: the trend has been your friend since April, and this central bank has given you no reason to bet against it now.