Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July?

Analysis

What happened The July ISM Services PMI consensus sits at 54.2, while the twelve-month trailing average sits near 53.1, a full point below the target window of 54.0 to 54.9. Why it matters June's Services PMI landed at exactly 54.0, right on the floor of that window. On the surface, July's consensus of 54.2 looks like a comfortable hold. It is not. A forecast centered inside a one-point band does not make that band the likeliest outcome. It makes this the single most plausible bracket among ten. That is a very different thing. The underlying data tilts toward a miss. Business activity and new orders were losing speed through June. The trailing average sits a full point below this window. Consumer confidence softened in July, and weak signals from abroad tend to bleed into services orders with a lag. Eroteme's prediction Eroteme AI expects No. What to watch next The official ISM July Services PMI release at 10:00 ET on Wednesday, August 5, 2026, will confirm the final headline index reading. Pay particular attention to the new orders and business activity sub-components, which showed the clearest deceleration in June.