Build a public record
Create a timestamped history of your forecasts as questions resolve.
FOUNDING FORECASTERS
Build a forecasting record that speaks for itself
Turn your views about what happens next into clear, timestamped forecasts with probabilities, reasoning and a permanent public record.
For independent thinkers across politics, technology, economics, sport, entertainment, business and geopolitics.
Make your predictions measurable
Online opinions are easily forgotten. Eroteme records what you predicted, how confident you were, why you believed it and what happened next.
Show your confidence
Express your view as a probability instead of relying on vague predictions.
Explain your reasoning
Publish the evidence, assumptions and judgment behind each forecast.
Share your work
Use Eroteme forecast cards to share your predictions across social media, newsletters and articles.
Find an audience
Help readers discover your subject knowledge through a transparent forecasting profile.
Shape Eroteme
Give direct feedback on the features, categories and tools that serious forecasters need.
For people willing to make clear, testable calls
You do not need a large audience or a professional forecasting title. We are looking for people with informed views who are willing to explain them and return to the result.
Suitable profiles
- Independent analysts
- Newsletter writers
- Subject specialists
- Journalists and researchers
- Prediction market participants
- Sports analysts
- Technology commentators
- Economics and finance creators
- Existing Eroteme contributors
A strong applicant should:
- Regularly follow at least one subject area
- Be comfortable assigning probabilities
- Provide original supporting reasoning
- Accept that incorrect predictions remain visible
- Be willing to publish approximately three quality forecasts each week during the initial programme
- Engage constructively with other users
Follower count is not an acceptance requirement. Quality, clarity and consistency matter more.
A strong forecast is specific enough to resolve
A measurable question
The question must have an objectively verifiable outcome.
Defined outcomes
Use clear Yes, No or named outcomes rather than an open-ended opinion.
A closing date
Specify when the forecasting window ends and when the result can be assessed.
A confidence percentage
Record how likely you believe the selected outcome is.
Original reasoning
Explain the evidence, assumptions and uncertainty behind your probability.
Resolution criteria
Make it clear which reliable source or event will determine the result.
See a complete product example in @mayswill’s public forecast.
Your complete record includes the misses
Active forecasts, successful calls and incorrect calls stay visible so readers can understand the complete record.
ACTIVE FORECAST
RESOLVED CORRECTLY
RESOLVED INCORRECTLY
From application to public track record
- 1
Apply
Tell us about your areas of knowledge, public work and the types of questions you would like to forecast.
- 2
Get set up
Accepted applicants receive guidance on writing measurable questions, assigning probabilities and publishing useful reasoning.
- 3
Publish consistently
Aim to publish approximately three quality forecasts each week during the initial programme.
- 4
Build your record
As questions resolve, your profile develops a visible history of correct and incorrect predictions.
What Founding Forecasters receive
Participation does not create an employment or contractor relationship. Profile features, subscription access and promotion are not guaranteed.
- Guided onboarding
- Help selecting suitable first questions
- Shareable forecast cards
- Opportunities to be considered for features by Eroteme
- Early access to relevant new features
- Direct feedback access to the Eroteme founder
- Input into future categories and forecasting tools
- Consideration for creator subscription access where eligibility requirements are met
Quality matters more than volume
Forecasts are assessed for clarity, originality and suitability, not for whether they are ultimately correct.
Review Eroteme’s terms, privacy policy and public accuracy record.
- The outcome must still be uncertain when published
- The question must be measurable
- Outcomes and deadlines must be clear
- Confidence must be expressed as a probability
- Reasoning must be original
- Reasoning should contain at least two meaningful sentences
- Copied, duplicated or spam content is not accepted
- Harassment, manipulation and misleading attribution are not accepted
- Forecasts must comply with the existing terms and community rules
- Incorrect predictions must remain part of the public record
Founder note
Why I am building this programme
I built Eroteme because people make predictions every day, but their confidence, reasoning and results are rarely recorded together. The Founding Forecaster programme is for people who want to make clearer calls, learn from the outcomes and help shape a more accountable forecasting community.
William Mays, Founder of Eroteme
FIRST COHORT
Apply to become a Founding Forecaster
Tell us what you know, what you follow and the kinds of questions you would like to forecast.
Applications are reviewed manually and are not accepted automatically. Your email app will prepare the application for you to review and send to hello@eroteme.io.
Frequently asked questions
Do I need a large following?
No. Applications are assessed primarily on subject knowledge, reasoning quality and willingness to contribute consistently.
Do I need professional forecasting experience?
No. You should understand at least one subject area and be willing to make clear, measurable predictions with supporting reasoning.
What counts as a valid forecast?
A valid forecast has a measurable question, defined outcomes, a deadline, a confidence percentage and original reasoning.
Do I have to publish three forecasts every week?
The programme is designed for people who can contribute regularly. Approximately three quality forecasts each week is the preferred level during the initial cohort, but quality remains more important than volume.
What happens if my prediction is wrong?
The forecast remains visible after resolution. Incorrect calls are an important part of building an honest and useful forecasting record.
Is the programme a betting service?
No. Eroteme records probabilistic forecasts and supporting reasoning. The Founding Forecaster programme does not require participants to place bets or deposit money.
Can I use AI to help with research?
AI tools may support research, but your published forecast should reflect your own reviewed judgment and comply with Eroteme’s rules.
Will I earn money from my forecasts?
Eroteme does not guarantee earnings. Eligible forecasters may later be considered for creator subscription features where eligibility requirements are met.
When will I hear back?
Applications are reviewed manually. Suitable applicants will be contacted using the email address provided.
Make your next prediction count
Publish what you believe, record your confidence and return to the result.
Apply to become a Founding Forecaster